7 Strategies for Uncertain Times
A lot has happened in just the past year.
For one thing, we can now hold a human-like conversation with machines, an event that foreshadows a cognitive and communication revolution unseen since the invention of the Gutenberg Press eight centuries ago.
Upon larger reflection, the past 3 years since I became a creator saw the Pandemic, global shutdowns that revealed the fragility of our interconnected systems, prolonged quarantines that tested our mental stamina, the biggest bull market ever, followed by its takedown in fear of the Russian bear and the reckoning of the Fed. Now the Middle East is once again engulfed in flames, risking wider escalation in the process.
Yet all this human drama is simply one stage in the larger and rapidly hotter theater we call planet Earth.
Regardless of the polarity of your outlook, it is undeniable that we are living in volatile times.
So when the LinkedIn Creator Accelerator asked about my future predictions, I realized that the only thing we can truly forecast is that things will change again.
Having now reinvented myself 8x across multiple industries, roles, companies, and countries, I’m no stranger to change. Here are 7 mindsets and strategies that’s helped me through many turbulent times.
1️⃣ Collect Mindsets over Skillsets
With industries, jobs, and tools constantly being disrupted, destroyed, and created, being able to think a certain way (Mindsets) is more valuable than knowing how to use specific tools (Skillsets), which become obsolete within 3-4 years - and rapidly decreasing thanks to AI!
The most valuable assets I gained from my diverse experiences aren’t the skills themselves, but the ability to think like those roles.
As a result, I’m not only more adaptable, but also make better decisions in future roles by taking on different lenses. This video explains more.
2️⃣ Study the Basics
I studied two majors at Berkeley:
Legal Philosophy, which taught me principles.
Business, which taught me tactics.
Today, my philosophy background is much more useful than my fancy business degree because basic principles change far slower than events and tactics.
After all, the words of Seneca, an ancient Roman philosopher, still ring as true as it did 2,000 years ago. We’re launching people into space, yet we’re still grappling with the same human problems.
If you understand incentives, cognitive biases, and game theory, then you make better sense of everything from business to geopolitics regardless of the context.
3️⃣ Learn to think in Systems and Mental Models
As humans, we are terrible at thinking holistically. Instead, we seek comfort in linear cause and effect explanations, despite living in a world of nonlinear systems with feedback loops.
This is why the media focus on events - because it grabs our attention. As a result, we get swept away in the latest crisis, hype and fads.
Like basic principles, the underlying system and trends change much slower than surface level events.
I recommend two books on these topics: Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows and Seeking Wisdom by Peter Bevelin. I also made this primer video on Systems Thinking. Once you get the hang of using mental models, you can even begin creating your own.
4️⃣ Learn to Mind Map
Mind mapping is the visual language of nonlinear systems thinking.
In my 15+ years of mapping, the technique has helped me untangle everything from personal dilemmas to business challenges to pandemic economics.
At its core, the technique is about breaking down complex issues into simpler parts and helping us see hidden connections. The next level is using it to arrive at new epiphanies.
Half the battle is getting started. That’s why the Mind Map Nation website has many resources and templates to address a wide variety of use cases.
5️⃣ Become Antifragile
Risk expert Nassim Nicholas Taleb coined the term “Antifragile” to describe things that not only remain intact (i.e. "robust") under stress and uncertainty, but actually become stronger because of it.
The premise is that because of our world’s complexity, outcomes are increasingly extreme and random (i.e. unpredictable) despite our efforts to “normalize” risk. Therefore, our biggest gains will come from dabbling in the extremes while avoiding ruin.
The two main Antifragile strategies I use are:
Optionality: This is just a fancy word for diversification. If you don’t know how the future will unfold, you want to have different options, so all your eggs aren’t in one basket.
For me, it’s having diverse mindsets, skillsets, and experiences that allow me to thrive in just about any place and role. My network and content also provide a lot of optionality.
Barbell Strategy: This means being conservative in some areas of your life while being very aggressive in a few key growth areas. This is akin to seeking balance in the extremes where two sides of the “barbell” balance each other out.
I do this by saving money from my previous jobs, securing rental income, and reducing my daily expenses to fund my push into the creator space.
This in turn, grows my optionality in the form of being on different platforms and growing multiple revenue streams from ads, sponsorships, subscriptions, speaking, and consulting.
In my opinion, given the disruption of the traditional education system by AI, entrepreneurship will be the main form of education of the future. Everyone anywhere can learn anything and be empowered with the tools to create value by solving their own problems first.
6️⃣ Build your Reputation
One of the best ways to gain from uncertainty and randomness is to build your reputation. If you are known for something in your field, then you don’t have to “push” as hard for opportunities, but rather let them come to you.
Investor philosopher Naval Ravikant identifies two types of modern leverage: code and media.
If you can’t code, then make and distribute media (write articles, publish videos, record podcasts), which builds your reputation so people can find you.
Of course it’s far easier said than done. Otherwise everyone would be doing it rather than collecting a steady paycheck. This brings me to the final and most important ingredient for long term success: Resilience.
7️⃣ Learn to Reframe and be Resilient
Even the best strategy will fail if you’re not resilient. Learning to reframe adversity is critical because problems are inevitable.
Being able to recover from setbacks means seeing them as lessons. This not only allows you to grow from mistakes, but sit with uncertainty in the present, knowing that you’ll be okay regardless of future outcomes.
I personally turn to Stoicism, an ancient philosophy used by emperors, CEO's and activists to overcome challenges. It taught me the concept of:
Amor Fati - Latin for “love of fate”.
When you embrace everything that fate throws your way, you will be virtually indestructible.
Together, these 7 principles form part of my Inner Citadel, a mental construct that grounds me while improving my decision-making ability in the face of turbulence. This concept will be the subject of a future post.
For now, my friends, I’m curious as to what your personal guiding principles are. How have they helped you through life’s challenges?
Make the most of your mind maps
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